What would improve the case?
Product demand, manufacturing capacity and sustained profitability and cash generation.
A–Z / E · Global equities
← Research portfolioEli Lilly
Did business growth translate into stock outperformance?
My research view at cutoff
Constructive on business growth, selective on entry price. SPY delivered the better YTD return with less volatility, so Lilly’s stronger historical record alone does not justify preferring the stock at every price.
Key findingLilly returned 6.29% YTD versus SPY’s 13.53%, with substantially higher annualized volatility.
| Metric | Lilly | Novo | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD return | 6.29% | −25.20% | 13.53% |
| Lilly / SPY annualized volatility | 36.87% | n/a | 13.15% |
What could weaken it?
Competition, regulatory and pricing pressure, execution and valuation sensitivity.
Contribution & method.
My contribution: Python analytics, financial-performance charts and interpretation. Oluwasegun Akinsanya contributed the fundamental and financial analysis.
YTD through 2 October 2026. Historical window: January 2020–December 2025. SPY is the market proxy. The notebook uses 3.78% for YTD risk-free input, correcting the rounded 3.80% in the earlier narrative. Monte Carlo uses 10,000 paths over 252 trading days and does not produce a target price.
Risk-free assumption: 2.86% historical; 3.78% YTD annual assumptions in the notebook, using a 3-month US Treasury proxy.
Sources and common conventions →Read or review the work.
The portable notebook reviews the dated summary inputs offline. The linked original repository contains the full workflow.